This alert expired on 14 June 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 21 recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026 — 9 others scored the same. The last comparable one was on 12 June 2026. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Special Marine Warning issued June 14 at 3:22PM EDT until June 14 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY
An estimated 117,846 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- August 2, 2026 · score 43 · 4.7 km
- July 21, 2026 · score 43 · 8.2 km
- June 11, 2026 · score 37 · 11.3 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 81 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 81% |
| Coordinates | 42.1314, -80.5383 |
| Nearest City | Ashtabula (36 km) |
| Population Exposed | 117.8K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-06-14T19:22:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Special Marine Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ab31f2969b96876417d5e8f97feb026e |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Special Marine Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Dunkirk to Buffalo NY; Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border; Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH; Conneaut OH to Ripley NY; Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border; Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border; Vermilion to Avon Point OH; Avon Point to Willowick OH; Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH; Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border and 1 more areas |
| Headline | Special Marine Warning issued June 14 at 3:22PM EDT until June 14 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY |
| Expires | 2026-06-14T15:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Buffalo NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 4 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ab31f2969b96876417d5e8f97feb026e7aaae38d.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4b641beb2399f5c6acaa6f4fa163f190b3465f50.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ae39b1f89674d270c7aac4d2c5797f9546824dce.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.cedb911c16a98613644a0de4b3c17abf99e43655.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Ashtabula?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.